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HONDA CIVIC REPLICA · MONTE CARLO RISK
🏎️Honda Civic Strategy Blueprint
Reverse-engineered from 3,016 historical trades. HC deploys ~100% of capital per event using a defensive 20/80 structure: a single conviction YES bet hedged by 3 FADE bets on improbable brackets.
Core Parameters
Capital Split20% YES / 80% FADE
Defensive structure — majority capital on high-probability fades
Bets Per Event4 legs (1 YES + 3 NO)
Always exactly 4 positions per city market
YES Entry< 60¢ (avg 37¢)
Only enters YES under 60¢ — needs 1.7x+ upside
NO Entry> 85¢ (avg 99¢)
Fades near-impossible brackets at 99¢ for safe premium
YES TargetHighest forecast prob
Picks the bracket the AI model believes is most likely
FADE Target3 lowest prob brackets
Fades the brackets furthest from the expected temperature
Win Rate81%
Historical win rate across all 3,016 trades
Median Entry10h before resolution
Enters 6-12h before market close for optimal pricing
Capital Deploy~100% per event
Deploys nearly all bankroll — aggressive but hedged
⚡Strategy Evolution
HC Sniper Gate ← ACTIVE
Proven profitable ($16k+ in tracked PnL). Deterministic 1-YES/3-FADE structure. Enforces strict Truth (Prob > 45%) and Math (Edge > 1%) Gates before risking capital. 100% Cash-Reserve default.
📊Active Model Metrics
StrategyHC Sniper Gate
BL ShrinkageN/A
Shannon PenaltyN/A
Copula Correlation35%
Total Legs0
Monte Carlo0 sims